Taiwan generated 21.7 TWh of electricity in September, 11.5% less than a year earlier — the largest year-on-year drop since the data series began in January 2016. Coal-fired plants bore the brunt.
Total generation fell 10% from August and 11.5% from September 2025. Coal-fired output collapsed 34% year on year, to 4.7 TWh.
Less coal burn means fewer cargoes: the 2026 steam-coal import forecast is now 45.6 million tonnes, only 0.5 million tonnes above 2025, and the 2027 forecast was also lowered.
Whether the slump in demand persists into the winter months, and whether gas keeps gaining share from coal.
September was the third month this year in which Taiwan’s power generation fell year on year, after declines of 5.2% in February and 2.6% in June — but it was by far the sharpest. Output of 21.7 TWh came in 11.4% below the 24.5 TWh that had been forecast, and 4.3% below the September average since 2021. Over January–September the island generated 190.2 TWh, 1% less than a year earlier.
Coal-fired plants took the largest hit. They produced 4.7 TWh in September, down 21% from August and 34% from a year earlier — again the biggest annual fall since at least January 2016. That was 21% below the 6 TWh forecast and 42% below the September average of 8 TWh since 2021.
There was no switch from gas to coal. Gas-fired generation also slipped, by 7.2% month on month to 13.2 TWh, but it was still 6% higher than a year earlier and 35% above the September average since 2021. Over the first nine months gas plants generated 108.9 TWh, up 9.7% year on year. Renewables, including hydro, supplied 2.6 TWh in September and 22.4 TWh since January, about 11% of the total.
Coal’s share of Taiwan’s power mix has fallen to 24.8% so far this year (47.4 TWh, down 10.7%). That would be the lowest since at least 2016, compared with an average of 38% in 2016–20, 34% in 2021–24 and 26.4% in 2025.
As a result, the forecast for steam-coal imports in the fourth quarter has been cut by a total of 0.7 million tonnes. Imports for the whole of 2026 are now expected at 45.6 million tonnes, only 0.5 million tonnes more than in 2025, with most of the increase from restocking in May and June. The forecast for 2027 has been lowered as well.
Source: Industry coal market report, 26 October 2026. Figures as reported on 26 October 2026; forecasts are the report author's and may be revised. Summary and wording by Megawise.
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