High-CV coal prices in Asia-Pacific are correcting lower and mid/low-CV grades are softening, with Chinese demand down three months in a row. Expected downward moves are now showing in the market, and the outlook has shifted to neutral/negative.
High-CV coal is correcting lower, mid/low-CV is softening, and the outlook for FOB, DES ARA and TTF has moved to neutral/negative.
Chinese demand has contracted for three months, domestic spot prices are easing under government pressure, and Taiwan's 2026 coal demand is set for a 10-year low.
Chinese supply, expected to improve through December, and Taiwan's consideration of restarting closed nuclear plants.
High-CV thermal coal prices in the Asia-Pacific market are correcting downward, while mid- and low-CV grades are softening. Chinese demand has contracted for three consecutive months, and supply is expected to improve through December.
Chinese domestic spot prices are also easing under government pressure, which adds to the weaker tone in the region.
Taiwan: demand at a decade low
In Taiwan, coal demand for 2026 is projected to reach a 10-year low. The decline follows a costly policy of moving power generation away from coal. The island faces power deficits, and utilities are absorbing losses because of high LNG costs. The government is now considering restarting nuclear plants that were recently closed.
Gas: correction phase in Europe
Atlantic and European gas markets are entering a correction phase. EU imports are stable, but German power and TTF gas face downside risks. Technical indicators point lower, and a recent price spike in Morocco is another warning signal.
Outlook
The outlook has moved to neutral/negative for High-, Mid- and Low-CV FOB coal, DES ARA coal and TTF gas. The downward corrections expected earlier are now beginning to materialise.
Photos: Photo: Jack Bain, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
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