More coal use does not always mean more coal ships

Global coal demand is expected to rise in 2026, yet seaborne trade in thermal coal is set to slip, from about 1,074 to about 1,062 million tonnes, according to the IEA.

The IEA’s mid-year coal update, published on 10 September, shows a gap between how much coal the world burns and how much of it travels by sea. Thermal coal — the kind used in power stations — is where the gap is clearest.

China explains much of the difference. Its total coal imports fell from a record 548 million tonnes in 2024 to about 495 million tonnes in 2025, and its seaborne thermal imports are forecast to fall again, from 325 to about 310 million tonnes, as the country draws on high inventories and buys more coal from Mongolia by rail.

India is moving in the same direction. Its seaborne thermal imports are expected to ease from 167 to about 160 million tonnes, reflecting high stocks and efforts to replace imports with domestic coal.

For exporters, the picture is mixed. Indonesia’s exports fell from 557 million tonnes in 2024 to 517 million tonnes in 2025 and are expected to drop to about 495 million tonnes this year. Australia’s thermal exports, broadly stable at 209 million tonnes in 2025, are forecast to rise to about 216 million tonnes.

Metallurgical coal, used in steelmaking, tells a different story. Seaborne demand is expected to rise by 16 million tonnes from 304 million tonnes in 2025, as stronger buying by India and Indonesia offsets weaker Chinese imports. Mongolian coking-coal shipments to China by rail are forecast to jump by more than 50%, to around 91 million tonnes, after a mining accident in Shanxi province in May.

Overall, the IEA expects total coal trade to edge higher in 2026 and return to 2025 levels in 2027.

Source: International Energy Agency, Coal Mid-Year Update, 10 September 2026. The 2025 figures are preliminary; the 2026 figures are forecasts. Summary and wording by Megawise.