The International Energy Agency now expects global coal demand to rise by 1.2% in 2026, to about 8.94 billion tonnes — reversing its earlier forecast of a decline.
The IEA revised its view upward as higher gas prices encouraged some power systems to burn more coal.
Coal and gas can compete in electricity generation. A disruption in one fuel can affect demand for the other.
Gas availability, summer and winter electricity needs, and China's power market.
In its mid-year coal update, published on 10 September, the IEA estimated that coal use grew by 0.3% in 2025, to 8.84 billion tonnes, narrowly above the previous year’s record. For 2026 it now expects a further increase of 1.2%.
The agency points mainly to two factors: tension in the Middle East and an unusually strong El Niño. Tighter gas supply pushed up gas prices, and some power systems switched from gas to coal, helped by temporary measures that allowed more coal-fired generation. El Niño raised demand for cooling and reduced hydropower output in some regions.
China, which uses more than half of the world’s coal, is expected to burn about 1% more in 2026, reaching roughly 5 billion tonnes. India’s demand is forecast to rise by 4.2% to 1,353 million tonnes, driven by power demand, cooling needs and industrial growth. In the United States, where coal use jumped by more than 9.5% in 2025, the IEA expects a 7% decline this year.
Elsewhere in Asia, Korea’s demand is forecast to rise by 6% to 119 million tonnes, as low nuclear availability and higher gas prices lifted coal-fired generation, while Japan’s is expected to slip by 1% to 161 million tonnes. In the European Union, coal use is projected at 276 million tonnes: the long-term decline continues, but less steeply than expected, partly because higher gas prices slowed the shift away from coal in countries such as Germany and Poland.
Looking further ahead, the IEA says that if tensions in the Middle East ease, global demand would edge down by 0.4% in 2027, to 8.91 billion tonnes — still above the 2025 level.
Source: International Energy Agency, Coal Mid-Year Update, 10 September 2026. Figures for 2026 and 2027 are forecasts and may be revised. Summary and wording by Megawise.
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